#比特币六连涨 Bitcoin Returns to $90,000 but Market Confidence Remains Lacking
Bitcoin price has retaken the $90,000 threshold, but the foundation of this rebound remains fragile. Despite the price recovery, traders overall remain defensive, and the derivatives market has yet to show signs of sustained optimism.
This week, as Bitcoin rebounds, the cryptocurrency derivatives market has almost no clear signals supporting a long-term upward trend. Even though last week’s Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) saw renewed inflows, the overall market structure has not improved in tandem.
The current price increase appears more like a brief respite rather than the start of a new upward cycle. In key areas reflecting market sentiment—perpetual and fixed-term Bitcoin contracts—most trading activity still concentrates on short-term contracts. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), long regarded as an important indicator of institutional investor participation, currently shows weak demand for forward contracts.
Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at K33 Research, noted in a report released on Tuesday that although there are signs of slight improvement in market sentiment, overall caution persists, with investors remaining on the sidelines amid recent gains. The report indicates that spot trading volume, volatility, and derivatives leverage levels are all hovering near lows seen before December last year, with 86% of open interest concentrated in recently expiring contracts.
Meanwhile, funding rates for perpetual contracts remain low, reflecting limited bullish positions and a risk appetite that has yet to significantly warm up.
However, the prolonged selling pressure that persisted into late 2024 reversed in the first few trading days of this year, pushing Bitcoin prices higher. On January 5, Bitcoin ETF recorded its largest single-day net inflow since October 7 of last year, and it was among the top ten largest daily capital inflows since January 1, 2025.
If Bitcoin continues to strengthen, it could reignite futures trading activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. As the spread between spot and futures prices widens, basis trading—the strategy of profiting from the price difference—may once again become attractive.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold and stock markets has sparked discussions about the long-term value of cryptocurrencies. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone stated in a report released on Monday that Bitcoin’s volatility has been steadily declining, especially when compared to gold and risk assets, which may indicate that the most explosive phase of the crypto asset has gradually passed.
