These days, I’ve seen people use the curve of stablecoin supply to justify ETF net inflows. To put it simply, sometimes the correlation is just “everyone’s sentiment changing together,” which doesn’t necessarily mean money is flowing from A to B. I also look at these data, but only as a thermometer, not as a steering wheel.

Once I saw a sudden increase in a certain on-chain stablecoin and thought “off-chain funds are coming in,” almost got tempted to chase after it. But the next day, I found out it was internal exchange adjustments and bridge transfers, and after messing around for a while, it was completely different from what I thought… I immediately closed the order interface and made two notes: if you don’t understand it, don’t act; don’t twist the story into truth just because you want to.

Recently, the “yield stacking” of staking and shared security has also been quite noisy. Some say it’s a pyramid scheme, which I can understand. As an observer like me, I’d rather earn a little less and sleep well at night. That’s all for now.