U.S. soldier indicted for insider trading—Is Polymarket’s gray area coming to an end?

Article by: Shannon@Golden Finance

The widely rumored insider leak case of Maduro’s arrest finally comes to a conclusion.

On April 23, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice publicly released an indictment in the federal court in Manhattan, New York, arresting an American soldier who had prior knowledge of the U.S. plan to arrest Maduro and used that information to bet on Polymarket. He is a 38-year-old active-duty U.S. Army soldier named Gannon Ken Van Dyke.

This is the first time that the long-standing legal gray area of “predictive market insider trading” has been turned into a concrete criminal prosecution. This American soldier will be recorded forever in the U.S. federal judicial records as the defendant in the first insider trading case involving prediction markets.

I. Core of the case: a military operation, a prediction market, and a soldier’s greed

Van Dyke is an active-duty U.S. Army soldier stationed at Fort Bragg military base in Fayetteville, North Carolina. Due to his job, he signed a confidentiality agreement promising “never to disclose any classified or sensitive information in writing, verbally, by conduct, or in any other manner.”

However, starting December 8, 2025, he began participating in planning and executing a military operation codenamed “Operation Absolute Resolve”—a secret U.S. mission to capture Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. During this period, he obtained sensitive classified information about the operation.

What did he do with this information? He bet on Polymarket.

II. Detailed timeline of transactions: 13 bets, $33,034 principal, $400k profit

December 8, 2025

Van Dyke began participating in the planning and execution of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” gaining access to classified information about the military operation.

December 14, 2025

Van Dyke created an email address unrelated to his real name in advance, preparing to conceal his identity later.

December 26, 2025

Van Dyke set up an account on Polymarket, funded it, and started trading on markets related to Maduro and Venezuela.

December 27, 2025 – January 26, 2026 (betting phase)

Van Dyke made about 13 trades, all betting “YES,” covering contracts such as:

• “U.S. military enters Venezuela before January 31”
• “Maduro ousted before January 31”
• “U.S. invades Venezuela before January 31”
• “Trump uses military force against Venezuela before January 31” With access to confidential information