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VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin Shows Two Major Historical Bullish Signals—Hash Rate Decline and Negative Funding Rates
Golden Finance reports that on April 26th, VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush published an analysis stating that Bitcoin has shown two historically bullish signals: negative funding rates and a decline in hash rate concentration, while volatility has cooled down.
As tensions between the US and Iran eased, Bitcoin’s realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41%, and the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, reaching the lowest level since 2023.
Historically, negative funding rates often indicate strong future returns: since 2020, the 30-day average return of Bitcoin during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, compared to an overall return of +4.5%, with a hit rate of 77%. Funding rates below -5% have yielded +19.4% returns over a 30-day period.
Additionally, hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile over the past 30 days, marking the most concentrated hash rate decline since mining was banned in 2021. In the past 7 hash rate declines, 6 times the Bitcoin price increased within 90 days, with a median increase of +37.7%.