AxelAdlerJr

Markets still lean toward de-escalation, but the signal is weak.
Macro regime is now Balanced: 10Y yields are neutral at 4.33%, but still rising, while SPX has shifted into range.
Risk assets will likely remain headline-driven and a real drop in yields probably needs a public de-escalation signal from the US and Iran.

More than 150K BTC still sits on OTC addresses linked to miners, while miner exchange inflow remains elevated.
Bottom line: the hidden supply overhang is smaller, but sell pressure hasn't gone anywhere.
Full breakdown in ☕️ Adler AM 133 👇

Whales are back on exchanges. Exchange Whale Ratio is now above both its 30D and 365D averages. And the 100-1K BTC band just spiked to 80% of total exchange inflow.
Large holders are becoming the flow.
☕️ Adler AM #132 - full breakdown below 👇

Market update after Trump puts Iran strikes on hold

BTC is trading exactly at the $68K cost basis of the 100-1K BTC whale cohort.
Above: $80K ETF resistance (holders still at -15%) Below: $47K deep support
The decision zone is here.
Morning Brief 131 👇

We’ve been building something new for active Bitcoin traders. A Decision Terminal that compresses on-chain + derivatives signals into one clear trade verdict.
First screenshots, realistic backtests, and this week’s Weekly Engine signal inside. 👇

In February - March 2026, the Coinbase Premium recovered from the negative readings that had reflected a capitulation of American demand, returning to a neutral-to-weak zone. However, the metric has yet to establish itself in a sustainably positive range, meaning a full-fledged bullish impulse from US investors remains unconfirmed.

Realized losses hit cycle extremes. But coins still are not moving.
That is not what a typical breakdown looks like.
Something is changing under the surface.
☕️ Adler AM #130 👇

Risk OFF remains active.

USDT + USDC market cap just reversed from -$8.1B to +$4.5B - but exchange inflow is still stuck at 0.68x of normal.
Liquidity returned first. Will BTC be next?
☕️ Morning Brief 129 👇

In today's SQL of the Week - a new 2026 model that helps assess how overloaded exchanges are with coins sitting at a loss. This model delivers more real insights than classic on-chain metrics like Exchange Inflow. At the peak of the current cycle it recorded maximum LTH activity, showed the scale and depth of the latest capitulation, and revealed several additional structural signals that are hard to spot with the naked eye.
Full model breakdown and live chart - inside the issue.👇

The main volume of Bitcoin supply is now concentrated in the $75K-$90K range. This is the key cost basis zone where the market will decide whether it acts as support or resistance.

Bitcoin Spot Volume (Weekly Timeframe): Price is rising, while volume is declining.

Reminder: today’s FOMC decision is at 2:00 PM ET.
Powell’s press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET.

Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: -74% from the October peak. aSOPR: below 1.0 for 55 days straight. Overheating is gone. But sellers aren't done yet.
Full breakdown ☕️ Adler AM #128 👇

The Cycle Extremes Index has reached 67.7% - entering the Bear Extreme zone.
Bitcoin is now trading 40% below its ATH. The indicator shows an extreme bearish deviation across on-chain metrics - historically, levels like this have aligned more often with accumulation zones than with continued downside. As long as no black swan event hits the market.

ETF flows have turned higher after February’s capitulation. But there’s a problem: BTC is still trading $5,174 below the ETF Realized Price, which means the ETF cohort remains underwater.
Demand is back. But the ceiling - the ETF Realized Price around $80K - is already close.
☕️ Morning Brief 127 👇

Two weeks ago, bears owned the tape.
Bitcoin was trading below Fair Value, with the model pinned in Bear Regime.
Today, the structure has fully flipped.
Price is back above Fair Value, and the bearish control is broken.
☕️ Morning Brief 126 👇

Bitcoin’s 2026-2031 price forecast is live - and the updated Weekly Engine is nearing a critical stress transition.
What’s confirmed, what’s still at risk, and what the system signals for next week - in Adler Insight Report #87 👇