OldLeekConfession

Different views are emerging within the FRB. Last week, three district Federal Reserve presidents each spoke one after another, hinting at the possibility that the market is paying close attention to: keeping interest rates unchanged.
Musalem, President of the St. Louis Fed, emphasized the risk that higher oil prices could push up core inflation. He pointed out that the core inflation rate this year could move toward 3% or even reach 3%. This is a level far above the FRB’s 2% target. In his view, it is necessary to maintain the current interest-rate range of 3.50% to 3.75% for a “considerable

U.S. authorities have taken action against suspected large-scale manipulation in the cryptocurrency market. Last week, three suspects extradited from Singapore appeared in a federal court in Oakland, California.
The individuals involved are four crypto market makers: Gotbit, Vortex, Antier, and Contrarian. The three arrested are Gleb Gora, CEO of Vortex; Manu Singh, CEO of Contrarian; and Vasu Sharma, an employee of Contrarian.
Prosecutors point out that these companies created false trading volumes through wash trading, order matching, and pre-arranged transactions. In other words, they made

The Qatari finance minister issued a pretty serious warning at last week's IMF meeting. He said that the current rise in energy prices is just the beginning. The real shock is expected to hit in one to two months.
The Ras Laffan LNG facility was attacked in March, and it accounts for about one-fifth of the world's LNG exports. In other words, if this facility in Qatar stops functioning, it means the global natural gas supply is already under severe pressure. They say it will take five years to fully recover exports, so it's truly serious.
Even more concerning is helium. Qatar supplies about 30

When looking at on-chain Bitcoin data, a somewhat concerning movement has emerged. The realized profit/loss ratio falling below 1 is a sign that traders are selling while still holding losses. This pattern has been observed during past bear markets, and afterward, a significant decline almost always followed.
Looking at the data from 2022 and 2018, after this ratio drops below 1, there is a further 25-50% decline over the next six months. If the current trend follows the same pattern, there could be continued selling pressure for more than five months. According to the MVRV indicator, extreme

The SEC has finally taken action. The news is that they approved the abolition of the Pattern Day Trader rule, and I think this is a pretty significant change.
Until now, in the United States, there was a restriction that you had to have at least $25,000 in your broker account to engage in day trading activities. In other words, individual investors with small amounts of capital faced this barrier.
Once this regulation is abolished, that entry barrier will be significantly lowered. It’s highly likely that more small-scale investors will find it easier to step into the world of day trading. Fro

Recently, there has been an interesting debate about the impact of the rapid advancement of AI on the economy. Kathy Wood's perspective has become a hot topic.
Her argument is that technological development could lead to deflationary pressures. In other words, AI could dramatically improve productivity, resulting in a continuous decrease in prices. This scenario is the opposite of traditional inflation concerns, but it is a crucial point that many people tend to overlook.
This is where Bitcoin comes into play. What Wood points out is that such a deflationary environment is precisely where Bitc

North America’s trade framework is undergoing significant changes. Recently, important developments regarding trade negotiations with the United States have been reported from Canada.
It is said that Canada’s Minister LeBlanc is scheduled to meet with the U.S. Trade Representative within the next few weeks. The key point is that the discussion will be centered on a review of USMCA. In simple terms, USMCA is the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, which serves as the current foundational framework for trade in North America, replacing the NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) from the

MetaPlanet has launched a new fundraising scheme, and it's quite a sophisticated setup. They've raised 40.8 billion yen, with an additional option for 44.5 billion yen on top... It really shows how serious companies committed to accumulating Bitcoin are. The mNAV clause and the mechanism that prioritizes BTC purchases while limiting dilution are also interesting. It's rare for a Tokyo-listed company to design its capital structure with such meta-level thinking. They currently hold 35,102 BTC at the current Bitcoin level, aiming for an additional 210,000 BTC... the scale is just different.
Sepa

When Bitcoin rises to around $74,000, it seems that a considerable number of investors are taking profits. Looking at recent price movements, this trend is clearly evident.
The current price is hovering around $73,880, with a slight decrease over the past 24 hours. Taking profits during such an upward phase is a typical pattern, and it’s not uncommon for selling pressure to intensify once this level is reached.
For short-term traders, it might be a reasonable decision to adjust their positions here. Observing the overall market activity, it feels like the balance between buyers and sellers is

Mr. Wood's latest perspective is quite intriguing. He points out that as AI and innovation accelerate rapidly, the market is facing a kind of vulnerability stress model. In other words, under the deflationary pressures brought about by technological innovation, there is a need for a means of value preservation different from traditional assets.
This is why Mr. Wood is focusing on Bitcoin. Considering its fixed supply characteristic, he argues that it could actually be advantageous as an asset allocation strategy in a deflationary environment. In fact, during phases when the entire economy is a

Recently, Meta and Microsoft have announced massive investments in the AI sector one after another, drawing attention. This trend could unexpectedly turn into a tailwind for Bitcoin miners.
The reason is that when these major tech companies invest in AI infrastructure, the electricity demand for data centers surges rapidly. As a result, the entire energy market becomes strained, and energy prices tend to fluctuate. In fact, this creates a complex environment for the mining industry.
Looking at the scale of Meta and Microsoft's investments, it's clear that significant power infrastructure will

Crypto ETF investments with staking features certainly hold the potential for attractive returns, but in reality, they are not products that everyone should jump into.
Recently, this type of ETF investment has been gaining attention, but what’s important is how transparent media and platforms are in providing information about these products. For example, industry media like CoinDesk emphasize independence and ethical standards in their reporting, and they properly disclose any conflicts of interest.
When considering staking-enabled ETF investments, it’s essential to verify the policies and pr

Prediction markets are increasingly recognized as professional hedging tools. Amidst a multi-billion dollar shift, this change is not just a trend but suggests a structural evolution within the cryptocurrency economy.
Behind this shift is the fact that prediction markets are evolving from mere gambling platforms into tools actively used by institutional investors and professional traders for risk management. As the entire ecosystem matures, the demand for more sophisticated hedging methods is growing.
Market infrastructure is also advancing. The emergence of globally focused digital asset plat

On Monday morning Asian time, the cryptocurrency market was shaken all at once. Bitcoin dropped from $67,700 in the middle of the night to $64,270, but then recovered to around $66,300. Since the market was illiquid, the price swings are larger.
The background of this sharp decline is linked to the drop in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 futures also fell by 0.84%. Additionally, the new Trump administration announced a 15% global tariff, which caused overall market anxiety. Tensions around Iran also seem to be rising, leading to safe-haven buying. That’s why gold prices rose to their highest since Ja

Bloomberg analysts have made some interesting observations. They suggest that the sharp decline in the cryptocurrency market might be a warning sign of broader financial stress. Of particular concern is the warning about the possibility of Bitcoin returning to around $10k. This has deep implications regarding a potential recession.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $74,250, but according to their analysis, as the risk of an economic downturn in the U.S. increases, there could be further downward pressure. The reasoning is simple: while stock market valuations are at their highest in about 1

It seems that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi revealed at a press conference last weekend that preparations are underway for a U.S.-China summit. The agenda for high-level exchanges is already on the table. Interestingly, Wang emphasized a quite cautious tone. He stated, "What needs to be done now is to make thorough preparations, create an appropriate environment, manage existing risks, and eliminate unnecessary confusion."
President Trump and President Xi Jinping had indicated plans to visit each other's countries after their face-to-face talks in the fall. Trump was scheduled to visit Chin

Recently, while analyzing market maker data, I noticed that the reason altcoins aren't rising seems to involve structural changes that can't be explained by traditional market cycles.
What becomes clear from actual OTC trading data is that the period during which altcoins continue to rise has shortened from about 60 days last year to roughly 20 days this year. In other words, it's compressed to one-third. This isn't just a temporary stagnation; the very structure of the market is changing.
Traditionally, capital would first flow into Bitcoin, then spread through Ethereum, creating a cycle that

Friend search apps, there are quite a few different types. Recently, I’ve tried various ones, and unlike in the past, more apps are genuinely designed with safety in mind. Mandatory identity verification, 24-hour monitoring, and so on.
The fact that they are free to use is also a big plus. Especially for women-only apps, some are completely free, and more apps are offering basic features for free even for men. Favomatch is specialized in finding friends for supporting favorite activities, Touch is exclusive to women and also emphasizes safety, and DotMatch is similarly focused on making friend

It’s interesting to note that Bitcoin reflects the bottom of the bearish market in the second half of 2022. As K33 analysts point out, the current price trend is strongly influenced by the market bottom from that time.
Back then, the entire crypto asset market was in a severe correction phase. The collapse of FTX, the Luna-Terra disaster, and the subsequent chain of liquidations and credit fears. It was truly a state where the market bottom was unseen. Over three years have passed since then, and looking at Bitcoin’s price movements, it’s clear that the psychological significance of those bott

It seems that Nvidia has announced a new open-source related agent project, and in response, AI tokens are quite rallying. Some are even outperforming the performance of the CoinDesk 20.
Looking at this movement, it shows how much open-source AI development is attracting attention in the market. Especially, tokens around agent technology seem to be being bought. It feels like a reaction not just to the AI boom, but to concrete project progress.
Although the token price movements are flashy, the underlying factors are the acceleration of open-source development and its impact on industries. I'm